> I doubt Waymo is ever getting close to those numbers
Why? In theory, Waymo should be able to copy everything Baidu is doing, e.g. manufacture in a low-labor-cost country like India.
This is mainly about the technology, that's the hard problem. Optimizing the costs is something that has been done many times before and we know how to do it.
At some point the technology is good enough, then the cheapest car wins. Waymo doesn't have vertical integration necessary to rapidly iterate and it can't afford to take risks - it's still not operating their commercial service on the highways, not because the tech isn't there, but because of the liability and PR damages if there's a fatal crash (much more likely at highway speeds).
Baidu can have their test car kill a pedestrian every day for the next 10 years if necessary, that's not exactly an even playing field.
Waymo is providing the self-driving AI, it's currently tied to a specific hardware, but it will become adaptable to a wide range of hardware. It will be used in both cheap and expensive cars. If the technology is good enough, it will work with cheap cars too.
They will start using highways with regular passangers probably by the end of this year. Maybe Baidu can launch on highways with a 10x higher accident rate, but I don't think it's a significant advantage to the business.
Why? In theory, Waymo should be able to copy everything Baidu is doing, e.g. manufacture in a low-labor-cost country like India.
This is mainly about the technology, that's the hard problem. Optimizing the costs is something that has been done many times before and we know how to do it.